The researchers on this project will build fine-scale simulation models for infection spread during air travel in order to identify the causes of infection spread, as well as procedures and policies that will limit its spread without major disruption to air travel. The researchers propose to create a super-computing based application that will provide useful insight to decision makers - such as medical responders, policy makers etc. dealing with Ebola. The models can be applied at the level of individual flights; thus not only can the spread of Ebola be understood for a particular flight, but also procedures can be developed that will limit the infection risk for that flight.

An air-transport model, which operates at the level of individual flights, will be integrated with a phylogeographic model (that captures the historical processes responsible for the existing geographic distributions of individuals) in order to analyze the spread of infection between geographic regions when potentially infected populations are being transported into, out of and across regions, by air travel. The result of this work will help identify policy as well as operational solutions to reduce the risk of a pandemic, and also set up scalable software capabilities on a readily available infrastructure that can be used to address the current Ebola pandemic, as well as respond quickly to new emergencies.

This proposal integrates the PIs' combined expertise in modeling human movement in planes, modeling the spread of infections, building a software infrastructure for decision support, and large-scale parallel computing. The models will be integrated using the Complex Systems framework (CSF, developed by a member of the proposing team) that provides a comprehensive decision support environment for analysis. Through this project, and in addition, CSF's scalability will be enhanced to petascale machines, and methods will be developed to reduce the large computational cost of these simulations.

Results of this work will provide valuable insight to policy makers. In particular, fine grain questions regarding plane travel can be asked and answered, such as: (a) the risk air travel has on disease spread to neighboring regions (b) can a change to another type of a plane lead to reduced risk of transmission? (c) Do certain seating arrangement or changes to boarding and disembarkation processes reduce the likelihood of transmission?