Urban Water Demand Roundtable

April 8, 2019

8:30am Water Demand Drivers and Forecasting 1

• Sarah Diringer, Integrating water efficiency standards and codes into long-term demand forecasting presentation
• Ken Seasholes, Urban Demand in Central Arizona: Analysis at Multiple Scales presentation
• Austin Troy, Micro-scale determinants of residential irrigation presentation

9:30am Water Demand Drivers and Forecasting 2

• Margaret Garcia, Assessing Drivers of Urban Water Demand
• Eve Halper, How does proximity to public green spaces and pools impact household water demand? presentation
• David Sampson, Water Harvesting and Outdoor Demand presentation

10:30am Break

10:45am Economics and Sociology of Water Demand 1

• Mary Ann Dickinson, Rate Model: Probability analysis of a particular rate structure’s ability to collect revenue presentation
• Holly Holt, City of Dallas Water Conservation Management: The social and economic drivers behind water usage presentation
• Dave White, Public attitudes toward urban water management strategies in western United States presentation
• Scott Winter, Economic and Social Drivers of Water Demand in Colorado Springs

12:00pm Lunch

• Katie Coughlin, Building the Case for a National Water Demand Data Resource

1:00pm Land Use and Water Demand Connections 1

• Philip Stoker, Connections between land use and water demand
• Erin Rugland, Incorporating Land Use into Colorado Water Efficiency Plans presentation
• Heejun Chang, Land Use Connections to Demand Management presentation

2:00pm Land Use and Water Demand Connections 1

• Joe Smith, Using Land Use in a Disaggregated Water Demand Model presentation
• Ray Quay, Residential Density and Water Demand: Denver Case Study presentation
• Jim Holway, Land Use Water Connection: Babbitt Overview presentation

3:00pm Break

3:15pm Water Demand Drivers and Forecasting 3

• Maureen Hodgins, Probability management in retail demand forecasting presentation
• Shawn Stoddard, Integrated forecasting of Population, Water Demand, and Operation Revenues presentation
• Peter Mayer, The Drivers of Urban Water Demand presentation
• Jack Kiefer, Connecting land use data and classifications with water use data presentation

4:30pm Economics and Sociology of Water Demand 2

• Viviane Seyranian, Strategies that Persuade People to Conserve Water
• Serhat Asci, Assessing Non-price and Price Strategies for Residential Water Demand Management
• Michael Hanemann, Thinking about pricing water presentation

5:30pm Close

5:45pm Shuttle to hotel

7:00pm Dinner

April 9, 2019

8:00am Demand Management 1

• Bruce Flory, Affordability Implications of Demand Management presentation
• Krystal Drysdale, Phoenix Metropolitan Area Multi-City Water Use Study: Single-Family Residential Sector
• Christa Brelsford, Determinants of Residential Water Demand and Conservation Program Effectiveness in Las Vegas, Nevada presentation
• Greg Fisher, Denver’s Water Demand Drivers presentation

9:15am Demand Management 2

• Paula Kehoe, Incorporating decentralized systems to reduce the water footprint
• Chris Meenan, Selecting Residential Outreach Targets Based on Neighborhood Demand presentation
• Kathryn Weismiller, Myths about water demand: truth or fiction? presentation
• Casey Wichman, Distributional impacts of budget-based rates

10:30am Break

10:45am Assessment of Drought Policies

• Charlotte Ely, Making Conservation a California Way of Life presentation
• Betsy Breyer, Water use restrictions and drought management
• Ellen Hanak, California’s experiences with drought presentation
• Anita Milman, Multi-level drought policies presentation

12:00pm Lunch

12:40pm Lunch Discussion

1:30pm Closing Discussion

2:00pm Close

2015 Urban Water Demand Roundtable: Bringing Together the Best in Current Research and Applications

February 9-10, 2015 | Residence Inn Downtown Tempe | Tempe, Arizona

Urban water demand has become a leading issue for utilities across the country. After many years of increasing water demand, most utilities in the U.S. were caught off guard by a steady decline in water demand over the last decade.

Though reductions in per capita demand has been a goal of most utilities for several decades, the recent declines in water demand have generated a number of unanticipated issues ranging from revenue declines to water quality problems. Further the explanation for exactly why demands have declined remain elusive for many utilities, which has spurred an significant amount of research being some both by the utilities and academic research centers.

In many cases preconceived ideas about their customers behavior towards water demands are proving not to be true, and the factors driving reduction in demand vary widely between utilities.

To help professionals and academics engaged in water demand research to share their leading edge results, in 2012, DCDC organized the Urban Water Demand Roundtable (UWDR) as an event at which academic and professional researchers could share and discuss their research and begin to form partnerships around emerging research needs. The UWDR events were held in 2012, 2013, and 2015 and the results of these events can be found on DCDC’s web site.

Steering Committee

Bruce Flory, Seattle Public Utilities
Doug Frost, City of Phoenix Water Services Department
Michael Hanemann, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, ASU
Maureen Hodgins, Water Research Foundation
Peter Mayer, Water Demand Management
Ray Quay, Decision Center for a Desert City, ASU
Kerry Smith, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, ASU
Doug Toy, City of Chandler Water Services
Dave White, Decision Center for a Desert City, ASU

Sponsors

Decision Center for a Desert City, ASU
Water Research Foundation
City of Phoenix Water Services Department
City of Chandler Water Services
Southern Nevada Water Authority
Hazen and Sawyer

Roundtable Program

Monday, February 9, 2015

7:30 Gather and Breakfast

8:30 Welcome

9:30 Lightning Talks

• Doug Frost, City of Phoenix [presentation]
• Ray Quay, Arizona State University [presentation]
• Maureen Hodgins, Water Research Foundation [presentation]
• Shazeen Attari, Indiana University [presentation]
• Christa Brelsford, Santa Fe Institute [presentation]
• Danny Brent, Monash University [presentation]
• Miguel Morales, University of Florida
• Roundtable Discussion

10:30 Break

10:45 Session 1: Water Demand and Human Behavior

• Joseph Cook, University of Washington [presentation]
• Klaus Moeltner, Virginia Tech University [presentation]
• Laura Taylor, North Carolina State University
• Roundtable Discussion

12:00-1:00 Lunch and Presentations

• Margaret Hunter, American Water
• Vlada Kenniff, New York City Department of Environmental Protection [presentation]
• Roundtable Discussion

1:15 Session 2: Outdoor Water Demand

• Bryan Bollinger, Duke University [presentation]
• Allison Lassiter, University of California, Berkeley [presentation]
• Roundtable Discussion

2:15 Session 3: Outdoor Water Demand

• Peter Mayer, Water Demand Management [presentation]
• Ben Ruddell, Arizona State University [presentation]
• Gary Woodard, Montgomery & Associates [presentation]
• Bill Zimmerman, Tacoma Water [presentation]
• Roundtable Discussion

3:30 Break

3:45 Session 4: ICI

• Jack Kiefer, Hazen and Sawyer [presentation]
• Dave Bracciano, Tampa Bay Water [presentation]
• Doug Toy, City of Chandler
• Roundtable Discussion

6:00pm Reception and dinner at Z’Tejas. Engage in participant discussion of the day’s activities and areas of collaboration. Looking ahead at day two. Participants will be asked for their input on future collaborations and the 4th Urban Water Demand Roundtable.

Roundtable Program

Tuesday, February 10, 2015

7:30 Gather and Breakfast

8:00 Session 5: Phoenix Research

• Darren Sversvold, City of Phoenix
• David Keen, Keen Independent Research LLC [presentation]
• Eddie Wilcut, Alan Plummer Associates, Inc. [presentation]
• Bill Hoffman, H.W. (Bill) Hoffman & Associates, LLC [presentation]
• Jamie Campbell, City of Phoenix [presentation]
• Roundtable Discussion

9:20 Session 6: Outdoor Demand

• Michael Dukes, University of Florida [presentation]
• Mike Hollis, Metropolitan Water District of Southern California [presentation]
• Mitch Horrie, Denver Water [presentation]
• Roundtable Discussion

10:35 Break

10:45 Session 7: Outdoor Demand

• James Heaney, University of Florida [presentation]
• Michael Price, Georgia State University [presentation]
• Kent Sovocool, Southern Nevada Water Authority [presentation]
• Roundtable Discussion

12:00 Closing Summary

12:30 Lunch on your own

2:00 Informal Topical Discussions

4:00 Close

Residence Inn Downtown Tempe

Conveniently located near Arizona State University-Tempe campus and Sky Harbor International Airport, Residence Inn Downtown Tempe is our partner in providing meeting space and lodging for workshop participants. The Tempe Transportation Center is also located at Veterans Way and College and offers light rail, bus, and shuttle transportation. Alternatively, Residence Inn Downtown Tempe provides free shuttle service to and from the hotel. Contact them at (480) 968-3451 to arrange a pick-up time.

Urban Water Demand Roundtable: Bringing Together the Best in Current Research and Applications

April 18-19, 2013 | Four Points by Sheraton Hotel | Tempe, Arizona

It is now widely acknowledged that falling water demands across most of North America by both residential and commercial customers represents a significant change in the nature of water use as experienced over the last several decades. This presents a variety of challenges and opportunities ranging from reduced pressures on water supplies, to increased revenue stresses for utilities, to the need for revised infrastructure standards. As a result, the water utility sector needs improved information on the causes of these declines in demands so that water resource, infrastructure, financial, water quality, and operations planning accurately anticipate possible future changes in customer needs. One possible source of this improved information are research partnerships between researchers working in universities and other academic institutions with professionals in water utilities that focus on both utility-specific and broader community and industry studies. One objective of this workshop is to facilitate these types of activities.

The primary theme of this event will be to improve communications among those involved or interested in water demand research in academic institutions, water/wastewater utilities, and consultant-managed projects. The workshop will be attended by approximately forty-five utility representatives, academics and consultants focusing on facilitating the exchange of ideas and experience among top academic and professional researchers. A key desired outcome of the workshop will be to identify research priorities and potential collaborations between different individuals and organizations.

Organizers

Doug Frost, City of Phoenix Water Services Department
Michael Hanemann, Arizona State University
Ray Quay, Arizona State University
Kerry Smith, Arizona State University
Dave White, Arizona State University

Sponsors

Decision Center for a Desert City in the Global Institute of Sustainability, ASU
Center for Environmental Economics and Sustainability Policy in the L. William Seidman Research Institute at W. P. Carey School of Business, ASU
Water Research Foundation
Brown and Caldwell
Carollo Engineers, Inc.
City of Goodyear-All American City
City of Mesa Water Resources Department
City of Peoria
City of Phoenix Water Services Department
Seattle Public Utilities
City of Tempe, Water Utilities Division, Public Works Department
City of Tucson Water Department

Roundtable Program

Thursday, April 18, 2013

• 8:00-8:30 Breakfast
• 8:30-8:45 Welcome
• 8:45-10:30 Session I: Why Are We Here? Why Falling Per-Capita Water Demands Are A Critical Issue for Utilities, Academia, and the Public at Large.
• Jan Beecher, Michigan State University [presentation]
• Bruce Flory, Seattle Public Utilities [presentation]
• Peter Mayer, Water Demand Management [presentation]
• 10:30-10:45 Break
• 10:45-11:30 Who We Are: ‘In a Nutshell’ Summaries. Three Minute Presentations by Participants’ of Their Interests and Research Work
• 11:30-1:00 Lunch and Keynote Speaker I – Maureen Hodgins, Water Research Foundation [presentation]
• 1:00-2:15 Session II: How Low Can You Go? Part A – Research Related to Changes in Indoor Use.
• David Bracciano, Tampa Bay Water [presentation]
• Bill DeOreo, Aquacraft [presentation]
• Laura Taylor, North Carolina State University [presentation]
• 2:15-3:30 Session III: How Low Can You Go? Part B Research Related to Outdoor Residential Use
• Danny Brent, University of Washington [presentation]
• Doug Frost, City of Phoenix [presentation]
• Rick Marsicek, Aurora Water [presentation]
• 3:30-3:45 Break
• 3:45-5:15 Session IV: Compare and Contrast: Trends From Across the West
• Tom Arnold, Tucson Water [presentation]
• Bob Denouden, Eugene Water and Electric Board [presentation]
• Gregg Eckhardt, San Antonio Water System [presentation]
• Phil Halverson, Las Vegas Valley Water Authority [presentation]
• Erin Young, City of Flagstaff [presentation]
• 6:00-7:00 Reception Z’Tejas. Charter bus departs at 6:00pm. Ray Quay will recap day one. Engage in participant discussion of the day’s activities and areas of collaboration. Looking ahead at day two. Participants will be asked for their input.

Roundtable Program

Friday, April 19, 2013

• 8:00-8:30 Breakfast
• 8:30-10:00 Session V: Building a Better Mouse Trap: Improving the Way We Model Future Water Demands
• Tim Bombardier, San Diego County Water Authority [presentation]
• Koichiro Ito, Stanford University [presentation]
• David Torres, El Paso Water Utilities [presentation]
• 10:00-10:15 Break
• 10:15-12:00 Session VI: In the Long Run We’re All Dead: Discerning Short-Term Cyclical Trends from Medium and Long-Term Structural Changes
• Jack Keifer, Hazen and Sawyer [presentation]
• Adam Miller, City of Phoenix [presentation]
• Kurt Schwabe, University of California, Riverside [presentation]
• 12:00-1:30 Lunch and Keynote Speaker: Kenneth Gillingham, Assistant Professor of Economics, Yale University – Lessons to be Learned from Industry: Demand Research and Modeling [presentation]
• 1:30-2:30 Session VII: What’s on the Laundry List: Roundtable Discussion on Research Priorities and Information Exchange
• 2:30-3:30 Event Post-Mortem and Organization Planning. Discussion on the value of the workshop and possible follow-up events.

Demand Roundtable Research Needs and Potential Research Collaborations

Based on discussions at our spring 2013 Urban Water Demand Roundtable, below are fifteen research needs and potential research collaborations. Please review and suggest any changes you feel are appropriate, or add other items of research you think were missed. Please send your suggestions to Ray Quay, who will compile a final document. This will be part of an online report we will prepare in addition to the current website documenting the roundtable event.

1. Profiles of Residential Water Appliances and Fixtures

Understanding how low indoor water use can go and how fast we can approach this low point is important for understanding the future of indoor water use. It is clear we are approaching minimum use on the technology side, but we do not clearly understand the rate at which these technologies are being adopted in existing and new homes. Creating local and national profiles every one or two years of existing water-use appliances and fixtures that exist within various residential types would help us begin to better understand at what rates these fixtures are being incorporated into homes. This would require development of a standard survey instrument and implementation method, as well as funding to implement the survey on a national basis with options for adding higher local resolution for different regions. Tampa Bay Water has had experience with such a survey, which could be used as an initial guide.

2. Evaluation of Policy Making

Just as we cannot predict the future of water supply or demand, we can also not predict the future success or impact of water demand management policies. Recent research has shown that some water demand policies, such as alternate days for irrigation, sometimes do not result in reduced water use. Given policy making is an experiment, one thing we are lacking is experimental evaluation as part of our policy making. Each time we implement a water demand strategy, we are conducting an experiment, but rarely do we include an evaluation of the results. Conducting an unbiased experimental evaluation of policy results, with distribution of these results, would benefit the practice of water demand management. Two approaches to this were discussed. 1) Before a policy is implemented, develop an evaluation methodology to be applied to demand management strategies after a set period of time. This could be done by the utility and then published in a journal article, on their website, or in a public report. 2) Solicit existing research institutions with an opportunity to evaluate the policy. This would require some mechanism to provide utilities with a list of potential research institutions that would be interested in such research. Partnerships for such evaluation could be formed around funding opportunities.

3. Dynamics of Industrial Demand

Water demand research has been primarily focused on residential water use because for most communities residential demand makes up the largest portion of their total demand. But in some communities, such as Chandler and Tempe, Arizona, non-residential water use is a significant portion of their demand. Unlike in the residential sector, few standards exist on how to collect data on non-residential water use and the internal water infrastructure of non-residential water use. More research about the primary drivers of commercial and industrial water demand, particularly what aspects of demand may be common among various sectors of commerce, is necessary. This research may perhaps be based on the North American Industrial Classification System though there was some discussion that there may be unique aspects of this for different regions and in some cases there is a high variability of use within a single class.

4. Economic Efficiency of Non Residential Water Use

Water is a key resource necessary for most types of economic development. Yet little is known about the water needs of different industrial/commercial sectors and the role water quality, cost, and dependability play in locational decisions. Few (if any) metrics exist for measuring the water efficiency of industries in terms of economic output, preventing communities from assessing the water resource costs versus economic benefits of different economic development strategies. An understanding of how water resources relate to economic development and some analysis of per gallon efficiency, in terms of jobs or economic output, would be useful.

5. Understanding Outdoor Water Use

For most communities, outdoor water use, particularly in the residential sector, represents a significant portion of total water demand. Understanding how residential landscaping and other activities, such as pools, relates to this demand would be useful in understanding the potential for future reductions in outdoor water use. Gathering site specific information about their customers’ yards can be time consuming and outside the capabilities of most utilities. The use of high spatial resolution satellite data to identify and quantify land cover on individual lots may provide a lower cost, higher accuracy option for collecting such data. The potential for use of such data in various climate zones should be explored.

6. Demand Trends of New Housing

Over the last 20 years, per capita water demand in most communities has been declining. This is due in part to changes in outdoor landscaping trends for new homes, such as changing lot sizes and landscape preferences in new houses. However, the factors and events that trigger these changes in new houses are not well understood. Research is needed to identify factors and events that initiate such changes in density and land cover and what the potential future is for such changes, i.e., the possibility that these trends will flatten out or reverse.

7. Effectiveness of Drought Response

A number of communities (e.g., Denver, Colorado Springs, Los Angeles, and Atlanta) have experienced severe drought conditions that have triggered aggressive water use reduction efforts. However, little information is available about how successful these efforts have been in the short term and long term. It is not also well understood how each of these drought demand management efforts integrate with short and long term supply management strategy. Case study research would be helpful in understanding the success or failure of such programs and how they strategically fit into a broader water management strategy.

8. Real-Time Water Use Decision Making

There is some evidence in the power industry that providing real time information to customers about resource usage results in a reduction of total use. This needs to be explored for water and involves several questions. How should real time information about water usage be delivered to the customer? Given that water consumption is different from energy consumption, how would customers respond to real time consumption information to reduce their water use? What does real time in terms of water consumption mean on an hourly, daily, weekly, monthly basis? How prevalent among utilities is the need to reduce peak demand? There is a need for more experimental work in this area in order to answer these questions and evaluate the utility of real time water consumption information as a demand management strategy.

9. Getting the Word Out

We learned a number of things from the results of academic and professional research at the workshop. There was discussion about broadening the audience for some of the more salient and relevant research results. What is the best way to disseminate this information to others in the industry and academic community? Academic researchers do not publish as much in professional journals because it does not benefit them academically. Professionals do not frequently read peer reviewed journals and there is little incentive for public sector professionals to publish their work in professional journals. How do we encourage more publication of research and project results in professional journals?

10. Landscaping Change in Existing Housing

In the more arid climates of the US, we heard about people converting from wetter (mesic) landscaping to drier (xeric) landscaping. In some cases, cities have incentive programs to encourage people to remove turf, but there is some evidence that such conversions would have happened even without the incentive. We currently have little information about what motivates people to move from mesic to xeric landscaping. Are there trigger events that cause such events, such as a home sale, or a neighbor changing their landscaping? What is the rate of market penetration of such conversions and what drivers may be an indicator of this rate of change? Are there economic forces influencing such decisions and, if so, what role do (could) incentives play in these decisions?

11. Data Sharing

Much of the academic research relies upon current and historical water use at the parcel level. But these data can be hard to come by for a variety of reasons including historical records of water use not being available or reluctance to release such data. What are the barriers to making such data sharing happen? What can academics and industry do to facilitate such data sharing? Would standard data sharing and data security agreements help? Would published case studies where such data sharing benefited the utility help?

12. Climate Change Impact on Demand

To date research on climate change and the impact of drought on demand is just beginning to scratch the surface. Kiefer’s study (et al, 2013) shows such impacts likely are not linear and may vary from at least region to region, and perhaps from utility to utility. Many questions remain. How are utilities incorporating climate change in demand and supply? Are there differences between hot spells, long term drought, and potential climate change? Are we going to see macro-economic changes, such as shifts in growth rate, as a result of climate change? Are there operational issues related to water delivery that would be affected by climate change that affect demand? In the bigger, long-term picture, would a carbon tax be cost effective? Outdoor water use is a function of infrastructure (type of landscaping, pools, etc.) and local climatic conditions (temperature, solar gain, and precipitation over time) yet little is known about these relationships. Future potential climate change may result in increased temperatures and changes in precipitation which may change landscaping regimes; how and when would such changes affect outdoor water use?

13. Possible Demographic Trends and Impact on Demand

GPCD and population growth are still the two primary drivers of total water demand. Much research has been proposed here on understanding future potential changes in GPCD, but we also need to anticipate what changes may occur in population growth. Could climate change result in shifts in population from, a) warmer/drier to cooler/wetter regions, b) coastal areas impacted by sea level rise and storms to inland communities? As world population growth rates peak, will growth rates also peak in the US and when might this occur? Research of these possible trends and their potential impact is needed.

14. Deeper Understanding of the Economics of Demand

Though we are exploring price elasticity for different groups and classes of customers, further questions remain. What are the appropriate metrics for income impacts (such as per capita income, ability to pay)? How are the metrics affecting price elasticity? What strategies make sense under various scenarios of change in rate structure, such as flattening? What is the willingness to pay for “special” things, such as water for the environment or projects that provide long term resilience to drought or climate change? Does where people come from and their experience with landscaping and rates affect their water use decisions? How do people perceive different rate structures and what is their perception of their own consumption?

15. Emerging Conflicts

A number of trends may have conflicting policies including community aesthetics and urban heat island resilience versus lower outdoor water demand and planting trees for shade versus decreasing outdoor water use. Demand lowered through conservation, resulting in less water moving through water pipes and sewer lines, may result in increased costs to managing water quality and sewer maintenance. Standards that are designed to insure adequate capacity for fire-fighting flows may result in lines being designed over capacity for normal water demands.